Hot spot tracking

  • U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, better than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Traders no longer bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the odds of a September rate cut declined. This news is negative for the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, tariffs could return to April 2 levels, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline; if the euro hits 1.2 against the dollar, Europeans will scream and ensure the dollar remains the global reserve currency. This news is bearish for the dollar.
  • The U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the House of Representatives after two Republican lawmakers defected, and Trump will sign the bill early Saturday morning. This news is bullish for Tesla.

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